{ "cells": [ { "attachments": {}, "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Problem definition\n", "Tina Belcher, brand-new manager of the new Bob´s burger parlour downtown San Francisco, wants to analyse the impact on the market and the loyalty of the customers of Bob’s Burger and Pesto´s, an Italian restaurant nearby. It is assumed that one customer dines once a week at Bob’s or at Pesto´s, but not at both.\n", "Tina has collected information from 100 consumers over a 10-week period. When checking the data, she discovered that of all the customers who consumed at Bob’s in a given week, 90 % returned to the restaurant following week, while 10 % switched to Pesto’s. Of all the consumers who consumed at Pesto’s in a given week, 80 % returned to the same place the following week, but 20 % switched to Bob´s.\n", "Assuming that the transition probabilities are the same for every customer and that they not change over time, we can get insights modelling customer fidelity with Markov chains.\n" ] }, { "attachments": {}, "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Model customer fidelity as a Markov process and answer the following questions:\n", "\n", "**a)** If at week 0, a customer dines at Bob’s, what is the probability of the same customer dining at Bob´s in week 1?\n", "\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "**b)** What is the probability of a customer going back to Bob´s two weeks running?\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "**c)** What is the probability of a customer changing to Pesto´s after dining at Bob´s and then going back to Bob´s\n", "\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "**d)** Consider the customer of section a) what is the probability that this customer comes back to Bob´s in two weeks time?\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "**e)** What is the expected market share of customers between the two restaurants?" ] } ], "metadata": { "kernelspec": { "display_name": "Python 3", "language": "python", "name": "python3" }, "language_info": { "codemirror_mode": { "name": "ipython", "version": 3 }, "file_extension": ".py", "mimetype": "text/x-python", "name": "python", "nbconvert_exporter": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", "version": "3.7.4" }, "pycharm": { "stem_cell": { "cell_type": "raw", "source": [], "metadata": { "collapsed": false } } } }, "nbformat": 4, "nbformat_minor": 2 }